Running the numbers: The comfort of knowing you’ll be okay

“My husband is 74, and I’m 68. We own our home and have around $400,000 in super. We receive the full Age Pension and live off that for our regular bills. When something comes up — car repairs, holidays — we take money out of super. This amounts to about $20,000 a year. Are we going to be okay?”

That’s the question Judy asked. And it’s one we hear often.

Because it’s not always easy to know. There’s no single number that tells you everything’s fine. Retirement is full of moving parts — the Age Pension, super drawdowns, rising living costs, unexpected expenses — and even when things feel like they’re going well, many people wonder if they’re missing something.

So we helped Judy to find out.

Running the numbers

Together, she and her husband Andy had $400,000 in Account-Based Pensions (ABPs). Their Age Pension entitlement was $45,037 a year — the full rate for a couple who own their home. On top of that, they were drawing about $20,000 from super each year — bringing their total income in retirement to around $65,000 annually.

Using the Retirement Essentials retirement forecasting tool, we looked at how things might unfold. If they continue to spend at that level, our projections show they’re likely to be okay — all the way through their later years. By the time Judy turns 95 — and her husband reaches an impressive 101 — they’re still expected to have around $38,000 remaining in super and investments.

In short? Things look reassuring.

But we didn’t stop there.

What if things change?

One of the most valuable parts of a retirement forecast is being able to explore different scenarios. What happens if expenses increase? Or decrease over time?

Let’s say Judy and Andy gradually reduce spending from $65,000 a year down to $55,000 between Judy’s mid-70s and mid-80s — a shift that’s quite common as people travel less and find their day-to-day spending naturally winds down.

With that adjustment, the outlook improves. There’s more breathing room. In this scenario, the couple could have around $215,000 still remaining in super and other investments at age 95. That’s not just a better number — it’s added confidence, added flexibility and a buffer for the unexpected.

We also tested what happens if they decide to spend a little more in their earlier, more active years. If they increase spending to $70,000 a year now, then scale it back to $60,000 after age 85, the result is still reassuring. Their forecast shows they’d likely still have around $19,000 remaining later in life.

These small changes don’t just change the numbers. They change how retirement feels. And they help answer that all-important question: “Will we be okay?”

Where does the income come from?

When you take money from an ABP, you’re drawing from your retirement savings — and those savings are still invested. Most people in superannuation are invested in a balanced option, which usually has from about 60 to 70% of the funds in growth assets (like shares and property) and the rest in defensive assets (like cash and fixed interest).

Balanced options have historically returned around 7–8% a year on average over the past 5 years, according to data from SuperRatings. That return — which varies year to year — is a big part of what supports your withdrawals.

In Judy’s case, drawing $20,000 from a (combined) $400,000 ABP represents a 5% drawdown — a rate that’s generally considered sustainable for many people who still hold growth assets in their mix.

But it’s important to revisit where your funds are invested from time to time. If your drawdowns increase, or if market conditions become more volatile, the right investment mix can help you manage risk while still supporting your income needs.

Your investment mix matters

Super isn’t a set-and-forget account in retirement. How it’s invested can have a big impact on how long it lasts.

Growth assets (like shares and property) have greater potential for long-term returns but can be more volatile.
Defensive assets (like cash and fixed interest) are more stable, but typically grow more slowly.

There’s no one-size-fits-all approach. The right balance depends on how much income you need, how long you need it to last, and your comfort level with market ups and downs.

For Judy and Andy, having a large part in growth assets helps keep their retirement savings working — even as they draw an income. It’s part of what supports their confidence in the years ahead.

Starting with one question

Judy wasn’t panicked. She didn’t think she was in trouble. She just wanted to know,Are we okay?’

That simple question led to greater peace of mind — not because the numbers were perfect, but because she could see her situation much more clearly. She could see how things might play out. And how small changes could give her more options along the way.

That’s the value of running the numbers. Not just for today, but for tomorrow too.

Next steps for confidence in your retirement strategy

If you’d like to check in on your current drawdown strategy and investment mix, a Retirement Forecast could give you clarity and confidence about the road ahead.

Over to you

How do you feel about the current investment mix in your super? Have you revisited it recently in response to market conditions?

Is there one single a change you’d like to make in your plans to help you secure your long-term income needs?

This article is provided by Retirement Essentials Representative Number: 001260855. We are an authorised representative of SuperEd Pty Ltd ABN 88 118 480 907 AFSL #468859. This information is not intended as financial product advice, legal advice or taxation advice. It does not take into account your personal situation, goals or needs and you should assess your own financial situation, consider if the information is suitable for you and ensure you read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) if you choose to make any changes to your financial situation. It is always advisable to consult a financial adviser before making financial decisions.