The problems with cash:

Are you missing out?

One of the biggest mistakes in retirement income is to think that you don’t have enough to ‘worry about’. So you do nothing. It’s ironic, as those who say this are also likely to report that running out of money is their greatest retirement fear.

It’s hard to have it both ways. In reality, the less you have, the harder you need to make that money work. But Retirement Essentials’ member data tends to suggest that many retirees are getting very poor returns on their savings.

Here’s what’s happening.

About 30% of our retiree members are holding all their savings in cash. The most recent Vanguard chart comparing investment earnings has just been released. This 2024 Vanguard Index chart shows the performance of different asset classes over the past 30 years

The most gains were in US Shares with an average return of 11.1% over this period. Next in line were Australian shares with an average return of  9.1% per annum. 

These two were followed by International shares (8.2% p.a.), Australian Listed Property (7.8%), Australian Bonds (5.6%), then cash (4.2%). 

By way of comparison, average Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases were 2.7% over this period.

According to Retirement Essentials’ director, Jeremy Duffield, there are three main reasons why too much money invested in cash may not be the best strategy. These are:

  1. For the 31% of members who hold all their savings in cash, there is no diversification whatsoever in their portfolio. As the performance of different asset classes may rise or fall, the eggs in one basket strategy means your earnings are restricted to the return on cash.
  2. As evidenced by the 30-year Vanguard chart above, cash is the weakest performer compared to other major asset classes, including Australian Bonds. So choosing to place all your savings in an investment which is highly likely to perform worst over the long term seems to be a contrary way of managing life time income needs.
  3. There are cash accounts and cash accounts. Some – such as term deposits – will require you to invest for an agreed time but pay a higher interest rate than others. These others may pay very low or no interest – for instance transaction accounts can pay as low as 0.5% compared to some term deposits accounts currently paying 6% for 12-month deposits. So there is a lot of variation in the return on cash depending upon which type of account you have.

Why people prefer cash

Cash is tangible. Assuming it is in a government guaranteed account, it is guaranteed to be accessible (up to $250,000) whenever you choose to withdraw it. This can be comforting for many people. But as inflation forces prices higher, the value of your cash is eroded. If you had $1000 in cash on 1 July last year, it was only worth $962 on 1 July this year, when 3.8% inflation over the 12-month period is applied. 

Can you have the best of both worlds?

Having a diversified investment mix is the solution for many people. This can be achieved by choosing a balanced or growth setting for your super account. One major super fund’s ‘balanced’ setting, by way of example, has a 20% mix of cash and fixed interest, the rest being international shares, Australians shares, private equity, property and infrastructure. It is very easy to check your own funds settings to see what they offer for growth or balanced returns – and important to do so. 

But this refers to the money you still have in super. If your funds have already been withdrawn in a lump sum, then it’s worth checking the current return on any cash deposits. You can also do some ‘rule of thumb’ comparisons to see if that money was moved to different investments or back in a super account (subject to conditions), how it might perform

The table below offers a ‘compare the pair’ scenario using Dianne as a case study. You may recall that Retirement Essentials’ adviser, Nicole Bell, recently did some projections to show how 67-year-old Diana could live quite comfortably on a mix of Age Pension entitlements and super top ups

Here’s a quick recap

Dianne has the median female super balance of $201,233 and no other financial assets.Assuming she is not working, she can spend $40,000 per annum earlier in retirement, reducing down to $35,000 per annum from age 85 onwards, there is approximately an 85% probability there is still some wealth remaining to continue to maintain her standard of living beyond age 92. The $40,000 income is achieved with a full Age Pension of $29,023 and a top up of $10,997 per annum from her super. The following chart from the Retirement Essentials’Retirement Forecaster shows how this works.

indicative-money-sources-1

The superannuation returns in this case study were based upon Retirement Essentials’  ‘Market Risk Level 5’ setting, which has slightly more growth than defensive assets.

Over to you

No one can or should tell you how and where to invest your retirement savings. But there are two ways of ensuring you are less likely to miss out:

Firstly, by understanding the returns on investing in different asset classes and educating yourself on what an ideal mix would look like for your savings and your time frame.

Secondly, by doing the necessary calculations or projections to see how much your savings currently return and if this amount could be increased within your risk tolerance, by remixing the assets yourself or by choosing an investment setting with more growth in the mix.

How much cash do you believe is necessary within your investment mix?
If you wish to explore your own risk tolerance, Or you may wish to do some projections as we did for Dianne, but factoring in inflation, super pension payments and other drawdowns over the years. In this case a Retirement Forecaster consultation will help you compare your own options, guided by one of our experienced advisers.